Wireline Trends 2005
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-In 2005, the vast majority of voice calls will still originate and terminate on the PSTN (Public Switched Telephony Network), but mobile and Voice over IP (VoIP) will steadily close the gap.
– VoIP’s call volume and user base will increase significantly among consumers and businesses alike, but few enterprise customers will migrate completely.
– Larger talk-time allowances and growing address book capacity will steadily increase both the number and duration of calls over mobile networks. Incumbent operators are likely to come under increasing pressure from fast-growing, low-cost providers, which threaten to have the same impact on the telephone business that budget airlines have had on the transport sector.
– Broadband penetration will continue to grow, but profitability is likely to decline. Broadband providers’ continued focus on price, rather than value, will result in price wars that increase churn and reduce margins.
– Overall demand for fixed-line bandwidth will grow steadily throughout 2005, driven by advances in processor speed (and file size), larger e-mail limits, and increased usage of digital photography and video.
– In 2005, we expect to see a number of new opportunities for fixed-line operators to generate revenue from convergence, including broadband games, virtual magazines, and consumer video over IP.
– Deployment of fee-based WiFi hotspots are likely to continue to outpace usage, with numerous companies fighting over a niche market that might actually get smaller in 2005. Yet overall adoption of WiFi will skyrocket, fuelling demand for broadband connectivity and other data services.