Media Trends 2005
Eerder berichtte ik over de technology trends voor 2005 volgens Deloitte. Nu de Media Trends. Het rapport is te downloaden in deze posting.
The long-standing business model for broadcast television – the network model – will, in developed countries, steadily be replaced by a complex and diverse media market with even greater opportunities. Rapid proliferation of channels and media formats has made it increasingly difficult to reach “the masses” through a single broadcast, undermining the power of traditional networks and reducing their value to advertisers. Yet the underlying driver of this disaggregation is the public’s insatiable appetite for content and choice, meaning media companies will have more opportunities in the future — not less. New devices and media will flourish, along with new forms of advertising, including embedded advertisements in video games, software, web browsers and even mobile phones.
This will remain a hot topic in 2005, but will provide strong returns for only a handful of media companies. Those that succeed will base their offerings on market needs, picking and choosing their opportunities carefully. Collaboration between game developers and movie studios will be one of the most compelling convergence stories of the year – creating value and extending the life-cycle for both products. Music downloading will gain respectability, with rapid growth in legal downloads and online music sites. At the same time, media and entertainment companies will join forces, working with police in a sustained and successful effort to crack down on piracy.
Companies will spend heavily trying to convince consumers to watch television on mobile phones and other mobile devices. But what consumers really want is simple content such as ringtones, screensavers, and wallpaper that allows them to personalize their phones — a market that is already worth billions of dollars.
Newspaper publishers will see modest growth from their on-line operations, while magazine publishers will enjoy greater success. Niche journals, in particular, will increasingly be offered in electronic form — providing instantaneous global distribution at massively reduced cost. Traditional media outlets will lose their monopoly on content, as more and more people express their opinions on the internet through blogs (web logs) and wikis (editable web pages). While these sources will not directly threaten traditional media revenue, they will compete for eyeballs and influence, which are the media industry’s underlying currency.
Digital Terrestrial Television (DTTV) 2005 will be a pivotal year for DTTV. The disruptive force of DTTV will be felt on two levels: first, as customers increasingly choose terrestrial broadcasts — rather than cable — for digital TV; and second, as wireless operators experiment with DTTV networks as a way to expand their revenue base.